The Aluminum Monthly Metal Index (MMI) rose 0.9% this month as aluminum prices hit a nine-year high in the first half of the month, but then fell. 

Stop worrying about the actual forecast of aluminum prices. Finding the trend is more important. See why.

LME aluminum prices reached US$2,565/ton on May 10, a nine-year high. 

Since then, the price has fallen below the US$2,500/ton mark, and the average price throughout May was US$2,434/ton.

The performance of Chinese prices is similar to that of LME. They reached a peak of RMB 20,030/ton on May 10, but have declined since then. 

On May 25, the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) released a white paper stating that due to the Section 232 tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump in March 2018, the domestic aluminum production and consumption industries are booming. 

As MetalMiner reported last week, the EPI report believes that a 10% tariff will lead to increased employment and production in the industry.

The paper concluded that from March 2018 to February 2020, U.S. primary aluminum production, including alumina refining and secondary aluminum smelting and alloying, increased by 37.6% annually to 1.14 million tons. Among the six smelters in the U.S. 

EPI believes: “Since Article 232 aluminum tariffs took effect, projects, investment, employment, and production capacity have increased.” “At least 57 new and expanded projects are located in the downstream aluminum industry, producing extrusions (bars and rods, pipes). And pipes and extruded profiles) and rolled (plates and plates) products. These new and expanded facilities will add more than 4,500 workers, generate 6 billion U.S. dollars in new investment, and add more than 1.1 million tons to the downstream domestic aluminum industry. Annual rolling and extrusion capacity."

However, domestic primary aluminum production does not cover downstream aluminum production.

According to data from the Congressional Research Service Center, U.S. primary aluminum imports in 2020 will be reduced to 3.2 million tons. Compared with 2018, it has dropped by 42%. In 2020, more than two-thirds of these imports came from Canada, followed by the United Arab Emirates Emirates, Argentina and Russia.

The document concluded that Article 232 tariffs should remain unchanged.

Robert E. Scott, EPI's senior economist and director of trade and manufacturing policy research, said: "Long-term global aluminum overcapacity will give U.S. industry a significant impact on national security and broader economic benefits. The ability to maintain operations, growth and investment in critical areas brings risks."-Wrote the report. "Maintaining Article 232 aluminum import measures remains critical to stabilizing and expanding U.S. aluminum production."

The risk of aluminum overcapacity corresponds to the new discussion on how to solve the global steel and aluminum overcapacity problem that the United States and the European Union began on May 17th. Currently, most of the excess capacity comes from China. Some also come from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries in the form of government financial and energy subsidies.  

President Joe Biden proposed to cut the original US$2.25 trillion US employment plan to US$1.7 trillion in order to win enough support to pass the bill. 

Most of the funding cuts come from roads, bridges and other transportation infrastructure projects. Biden's initial proposal included an investment of US$159 billion in these projects, which was then reduced to US$120 billion. This reduction may have a direct impact on domestic aluminum demand. Highways, transportation systems, buildings, infrastructure, and other public places all need aluminum. 

The Aluminum Association supports the Biden government's boost to potential demand. It also advocates an infrastructure policy framework to promote long-term federal funding for infrastructure improvements, shorten the permitting and approval process for infrastructure projects, and encourage the use of advanced technology and energy management practices to improve the energy efficiency of buildings. 

Century Aluminium announced that it will spend $60 million to expand its Mount Holly smelter in South Carolina. 

The Mount Holly smelter is one of the six remaining aluminum smelters in the United States. According to the company, it is the most modern smelter in the United States. The smelter can produce 229,000 metric tons of aluminum annually.

The smelter produces steel billets, horizontal direct cooling (HDC) ingots, T-shaped ingots and slabs. These products are used in the automotive and aerospace industries. 

The Graphene Manufacturing Group (GMG) and the University of Queensland in Australia announced their results in button batteries. The surface perforation of graphene used in aluminum ion batteries is applying for a patent. 

The company claims that its batteries charge 60 times faster than the best lithium-ion batteries. It also stated that its battery has three times the energy of the best aluminum-based battery. 

In addition, the stability of the materials in the battery makes it have no upper ampere limit (this can cause the lithium battery to overheat). It also makes recycling easier. 

Craig Nicol, CEO and Managing Director of GMG, said: “We currently hope to launch a commercial prototype of button batteries for customer testing within 6 months, and launch a bag-packed commercial for mobile phones, laptops, etc. within 18 months. The prototype is used for customer testing." May 11th. "We are very happy to bring it to market.

Nicol added that the company's goal is "after customer verification, we may establish a viable graphene and coin cell battery production facility project in Australia."

The technology can also be applied to electric vehicles and grid storage. 

Ending this month's aluminum prices, as of June 1, LME three-month aluminum fell 0.2% month-on-month to US$2,434 per metric ton.

China's primary spot aluminum rose 1.8% to US$2,961 per metric ton. China's aluminum scrap fell 5.5% to US$2,088 per metric ton. At the same time, China's aluminum billet rose 1.6% to US$2,413 per metric ton.

The price of 1050 aluminum sheet in Europe rose 0.4% to US$3,577 per metric ton.

Indian primary cash rose 3.8% to US$2.72 per kilogram.

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